What started as public protests in
Ukraine over the handling of a trade
pact with the European Union escalated
by increasingly large protest crowds
and violence especially in the capital
Kiev, leading to the
ousting of the pro-Russian President
Viktor Yanukovych. The President had
been elected narrowly in a 2010
election in which his support voting
aligned with Russian first language
distribution in Ukraine. As a result
of mounting pressures from the
protests, and before he fled to
Russia, Yanukovych was forced to reach
agreement with the opposition on
interim governing arrangements prior
to new elections. A
new interim government has been
installed in Kiev.
Ukraine is important to Russia and to
the West. Ukraine is the biggest
frontier nation separating Russia and
the European Union and has sometimes
been considered a pawn between Russia
and the West. It borders on Poland,
Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Forty
percent of the natural gas Europe
needs passes through Ukraine from
Russia in pipelines and Ukraine itself
is even more highly dependent than
Europe on Russian natural gas and its
price.
(CNN Breaking News March 3rd)
The Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe, OSCE, developed
from the Helsinki Accords and a formal
series of consultations which ended
the Cold War in 1990. The aim was to
ensure peace and security in Europe.
The OSCE took no specific actions
concerning the Ukraine situation
before the end of 2013. The situation
during the crisis which developed in
late November was complicated by the
fact that the rotating OSCE
Chairperson-in-Office during calendar
2013 was Leonid Kozhara, then Foreign
Minister for Ukraine. At the December
4, 2013 OSCE Ministerial meeting the
OSCE Secretary General could only
welcome assurances from Kozhara that
the harsh handling of the peaceful
protests would be investigated, and he
offered the good offices of the
organization, but the offer was not
taken up.
January 2014 saw Didier Burkhalter,
Swiss Foreign Minister, became the new
OSCE Chairperson-in-Office. He
expressed concerns about changes in
law and the increasing polarisation in
Ukraine and offered the good offices
of the OSCE. He
met 24 January with the Prime Minister
and 7 February with the President to
explore ways forward. February 19 he
offered a package of measures from the
OSCE. Meanwhile, the Winter Olympic
games hosted in Sochi Russia
overshadowed much of the negative news
from Ukraine.
On February 21 Burkhalter welcomed the
settlement reached by the parties in
Ukraine and again offered the good
offices of the OSCE. February 24 he
announced a personal representative
and a team to go to Kiev to assess
possible support measures. He also
sent the OSCE High Commissioner on
Minorities to the Crimea as his
special representative. March 1 he
urged participating
States to refrain from unilateral
actions and to engage in a
meaningful dialogue. March 3, 2014
the OSCE Office for Democratic
Institutions and Human Rights
(ODIHR) announced that it would send
an election observation mission to
Ukraine for the 25 May early
presidential election.
In a defining announcement on
March 11 Chair-in-Office Burkhalter
said:
“In
its current form the referendum
regarding Crimea scheduled for March
16, 2014, is in contradiction with
the Ukrainian Constitution and must
be considered illegal.
“For any referendum regarding the
degree of autonomy or sovereignty of
the Crimea to be legitimate, it
would need to be based on the
Ukrainian constitution and would
have to be in line with
international law,” he said. In that
context, Burkhalter called upon all
actors to refrain from supporting
“unconstitutional activities.”
“The Chair also ruled out the
possibility of an OSCE observation
of the planned referendum of March
16 as the basic criteria for a
decision in a constitutional
framework was not met. Furthermore,
an invitation by the participating
State concerned [Ukraine] would be a
precondition to any observation
activity in this regard.” (OSCE)
Russia might note that Crimea was a
special autonomous region of Ukraine
under its present Constitution and
so a potential candidate for
autonomy anyway. There is also the
fact which Russia does allude to
that the Constitution was recently
adjusted at the end of the elected
government’s term in the
extraordinary all party settlement
of the protests – but that is
unlikely to be significant.
Ultimately the referendum really was
declared to be not good enough by
the body with authority to say so.
It wasn’t done according to the
OSCE’s view of the OSCE rules.
Surprisingly, CNN, reporting on the
vote in Crimea to separate, appeared
ignorant of the OSCE and followed my
own sense that arguments could be made
both ways.
"The answer depends on what
your perspective is," said David
Rothkopf, editor of Foreign Policy
magazine. "The U.S. is buying into the
argument of the Ukraine government,
which is that the secession of Crimea
from Ukraine is not constitutional
under the terms of the Ukrainian
constitution," Rothkopf said. "The
alternative argument is that all
peoples have a right of
self-determination and that if the
people of Crimea choose not to be part
of Ukraine, that is their prerogative
in the same way that it was the choice
of colonial powers to break away from
the imperial powers that claimed them
or parts of the former Yugoslavia were
free to head off on their own," he
added. (CNN Breaking News March 19)
Rothkopf notwithstanding, according to
the OSCE, the agency which has rules
binding on all OSCE parties, the
referendum was illegally carried out.
That is serious for OSCE and all its
members. The issue is not sanctions.
The issue is: can faith in the OSCE be
restored – can humpty dumpty be put
back together again. Some of us had
believed that the OSCE could maintain
peace and security in Europe – and the
OSCE includes Canada and the US as
members. Now we can’t believe that the
OSCE can do the job.
According to CNN Breaking News 19
March, the positions taken on the
referendum vote were:
“The United States and its European
allies say Sunday's referendum vote
violated Ukraine's newly re-forged
constitution and amounts to a thinly
veiled attempt by Russia to expand its
borders to the Black Sea peninsula
under a threat of force.” [This of
course isn’t technically quite true at
present because the Crimea is not
physically connected to Russia.
However, the government of the Crimea
autonomous region of Ukraine has
indicated it wishes to be independent
and linked to Russia and it has held a
referendum which has endorsed that
position.]
Moscow asserts Ukrainian President
Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in an
illegal coup, which ended Ukraine's
constitutional authority. [This is not
quite true. The pro-Russian Ukraine
government was forced to reach an all
party agreement which ended its term
and set out interim arrangements.]
Russian President Vladimir Putin
argues Crimeans should have the right
to decide how they want to be governed
going forward.” [They have that right
– but following the way set out in the
OSCE.]
By March 24th it appeared that the new
interim Ukraine government in Kiev had
accepted essentially the same
cooperation agreement with Europe
which the previous government had
refused on November 29th 2013, in
favour of alternative agreement offers
from Russia. An independent Crimea had
been accepted by Russia as part of the
Russian Federation. Ukraine was
abandoning its military installations
in Crimea and pulling out its troops.
Toronto’s Globe & Mail featured
Ukraine’s “new Prime Minister” saying: “He
has
been Ukraine’s Prime Minister for
barely a month, but already Arseniy
Yatsenyuk doubts anyone will vote for
him again. That’s not surprising,
given that his agenda includes raising
taxes, slashing spending, cutting
subsidies, stamping out corruption,
and transforming nearly every
government institution. And all while
the economy stagnates and the country
faces a possible military
confrontation with Russia.”
March 24th, the Permanent Council of
the OSCE was finally able to agree in
a special session on Ukraine to send
an OSCE Special Monitoring Mission of
international observers to Ukraine to
contribute to reducing tensions and
fostering peace, stability and
security. That is the only good news
from the OSCE so far.
