David
Frum,
Canadian-American, proud conservative,
Republican, former
speech writer for President G.W. Bush, and
now a Staff Writer at the
Atlantic has given us a clever book. It
attracts us with well-written
insights into Trump. At the same time it
pushes us into noting areas
of US democracy that Trump has uncovered as
wanting. Frum senses a
coming major pendulum swing to the left,
with a possible liberal
political harvest. Within this he urges
honest conservatives and
honest liberals to seize the moment for
something lower profile –
underlying political reforms. With
representative
voting, a professional public service, a
senate that
functioned democratically Trump would not
have been elected and could
not have imposed his corrupt practices. Some
changes are
technicalities but Frum insists they need to
be fixed. Even if the
pandemic and the recession topple Trump, his
core base will remain -
alienated, resentful and dangerous. Apocalypse
was
to first century Christians and Jews a
revelation – a beginning
that would usher in a new and better order
where justice would
triumph at last over injustice. This book is
Frum’s plea that the
passing of Trump (may it be so) will result
in a new beginning with
reformed US democracy. The
book
falls into two parts, The Reckoning and A
New Age of Reform. The
first
chapter, The
Smash-up,
is a collection of things Trump did do and
did not do, as well as
some statistics on changing voting patterns.
As under Obama, under
Trump the benefits of economic growth went
to big cities, knowledge
centres and educated elites. Gaps between
cities and rural areas are
widening. Typical families did not see much
benefit from the Trump
tax cut. There was no manufacturing
renaissance. American sexes live
increasingly apart. Men and women vote
differently. The Republican
party spoke to cultural grievances of
American men. Older people
voted for Trump, were less likely to care
about climate change, found
immigration a threat and were less likely to
recognize fake news. The
over 65 demographic is growing. The
media
culture enflames polarization. TV local news
is the dominant
source of news for 37% and it is dominated
by pro-Trump Sinclair
Broadcast Group. Next comes cable, dominated
by Fox News. After TV
come social media. Facebook’s biggest
advertiser summer 2019, after
Trump campaign advertising, was
Epoch Times
a far-right source of pro-Trump conspiracy
theories and false news.
In 2016 fewer than half of Americans
identified as white and
Christian.
There
is
a sequence: Trump does not want to know how
government works and
he rejects information. Consequently,
policies fail spectacularly. He
then takes personal control. He chooses the
option that sounds
toughest. This is the pattern that was at
work when families were
separated and children were put in detention
at the southern border. There
is
scope for a dishonest president to gain
wealth on a post-Soviet
scale. Trump has done only some of that to
keep his debts at bay. But
he could have done more. Building impunity
was his most successful
project. It deserves preventive attention in
a post Trump era. Chapter
2,
The
Wall of Impunity, begins
with
the Mueller investigation of the
Trump-Russia connection. It was
a spectacular failure. Mueller constrained
his investigation in many
ways – like holding it to only the 2015-2016
period - so as to
avoid answering key questions Americans had.
Despite this the facts
were damning. It’s illegal for federal
employees to overspend on
travel to benefit themselves or their
colleagues. Vice President
Pence visited Ireland in 2019 and wasted
taxpayer dollars by staying
at Trump’s golf course 180 miles from the
meeting. Trump staffers
meet every Tuesday night with lobbyists at
the Trump hotel in
Washington D.C. The
law
enforcement system in the US is more
political than any other.
Ninety-three US attorneys are political
appointees reporting to an
assistant attorney general for the Criminal
Division – also an
appointee. Equivalents in other countries
are career civil servants. Trump
has
demonstrated the very great extent to which
presidential
cooperation with the law is voluntary. At
one point in 2019, Trump
simultaneously refused all cooperation with
20 distinct congressional
investigations. There was little to be done.
Worse, Republicans in
the House and the Senate will act to defend
a president they despise
against charges they know to be true. Chapter
3
World
War Trump reminds
us
that US presidents have some freedom over
foreign policy yet
Trump’s brand has been a disaster for the
US. Allies – UK,
Canada, Ukraine have been prey. Past
presidents saw their job as
building a world system that worked for all
liberal democracies.
Trump discarded this. The Trans-Pacific
Partnership to offset Chinese
power was ditched as soon as he was elected.
He loves trade wars. He
claims other countries don’t pull their
weight. Other countries do
pull their weight: France and Canada in West
Africa; and the EU in
Eastern Europe. The US has not fought a war
alone since Panama. Trump
has admired strong leaders in non-democratic
regimes. A stance that
is hardly conducive to admiration from
former allies. Chapter
4
White
terror.
A new virtual international terrorist
movement began mid 2016,
sharing ideas and rhetoric. This movement of
white racial resentment
has killed hundreds of people over the Trump
years and looks to Trump
as inspiration. There were 49 mass killings
in the US in 2019. The
Anti-Defamation league reported a change
from 2017. All the 2019
political murders were linked to right-wing
extremists. There
are
on-going reports of Trump supporters being
ready for violence,
and Trump claims tough supporters. Pipe
bomber Cesar Sayoc chose his
targets from Trump tweets. These elements of
society have always been
around but earlier Republican presidents
sought to contain “dark
energies.” Trump conjured them. Trump’s
movement
sees itself as nationalist, but its vision
is a
multinational white nation based in Moscow.
It’s not white
nationalist. There are mixed race and other
race members who only
have to agree “white is best.” The
new
movement is radically masculinist and
misogynist. The 21st
century has been bewildering for men, and
their resentments provided
a political resource for Trump. The movement
is implacably hostile to
science, reason and objective truth.
Anti-vaccination and
anti-climate change pervade. The concept of
power is personal.
Loyalty is due to persons. For Trump it
means loyalty to Trump –
not loyalty to the Constitution. There
are
echoes of fascism, but fascism was built
around youth and energy.
The new movement is shaped by nostalgia of
the elderly, looking back
to a better time and not looking forward to
a utopia by conquest.
Democracies are stronger than in the 1930s.
Roosevelt explained in
1938 that democracy could be lost if it
failed to address pressing
social problems and he challenged the nation
to show that “operation
of democratic government is equal to the
task of protecting the
security of the people.”
Trump’s
movement,
like Trump, is deadly dangerous yet absurd.
“The real
Nazis seized a nation, these bozos lurk on
Gab.” But they can kill.
They are losers - with guns. They cannot be
eliminated. They can be
rendered harmless, but that will take more
than one election even if
Trump goes in the first. 5.
“Real”
versus “Unreal” Americans. Before
2001
there was only the odd time when a president
was elected by the
Electoral College as opposed to by a
majority of the votes cast.
Since 2010 anti-majority outcomes have
occurred more often at every
level of the system. Since 2000 only one of
ten presidential nominees
got a smaller share of the popular vote than
Trump got in 2016 – he
won with 46.09%. Trump said he won because
Clinton had illegal votes.
Many were ready to believe that, if not
technically illegal,
Clinton’s votes were from people who
“counted” less. Many
Republicans
believe that the 2020 Presidential election
is critical
for everything America holds dear because
New Yorkers and
Californians herd-vote for socialism and
abortion. If Californian
turnout is higher in 2020, a tight election
could be won by 4 million
votes even if Trump’s rural white votes rise
too. There is a
distinction for Trump between people and the
people. Many hear that
as meaning many people vote who should not
have been allowed to in
the first place. But “the people” elected
him. And the Electoral
College could put in Trump again. Demographics
predict
that by 2040 70% of the population will be
in 15 states and
30% in 35. The 30% will be mainly white,
non-urban and over 55 years
old. They will control 70 senate seats –
enough to override a
president’s veto. Voting for the same
presidential candidate, they
will give a 40-vote advantage in the
Electoral College. Since
2010,
the electoral system has been gamed to erode
democratic
self-rule especially at the state level. For
example, in 2018
Republicans won 47% of the votes in Michigan
and took 53% of the
seats; 48% votes in N. Carolina and 51%
seats; 51% in Ohio and 62%
seats. Former Wisconsin governor Walker said
just because Democrats
win big margins in some districts doesn’t
mean they should have
more seats! Feeling threatened by Obama,
Republicans wrote maps to
guarantee they would win even if they lost.
There are things on top
of that. Georgia purges from the voters’
list any voter’s name
not exactly matching the state’s driving
records. The appeal
process is slow. In 2018 53,000 appeals were
pending on voting day.
The winner won by 53,000 votes. 70% of those
appealing were black. In
a
couple of cases in 2019 the Supreme Court
ruled that partisan
gerrymandering was not the business of the
federal courts. That
leaves state courts, which Frum says require
prayer and more. The
Voting Rights Act 1965 was supposed to fix
all this. A
re-authorization was issued in 2006 by
George W Bush. But the Supreme
Court vitiated a crucial enforcement section
in 2013.
The
stability
of a democratic system depends on people
playing by agreed
fair rules. But many Americans care only
about outcomes. Political
professionals and public- spirited elites
police the system. Trump
has defied accountability on a scale and
with a consistency unequaled
in modern presidential history. The
convergence
of political power supports the
concentration of economic
power. As workers lose out, voters become
more vulnerable to
demagogues and extremists. 6.
The
Deep State Lie.
Pre-president Trump had a mysterious
relationship with the FBI. He
was an informant in 1980. Trump gradually
attached deep
state to every
element
of government that resisted his whim. His
unlawful and illegal orders
were not followed – like an order to
assassinate Syria’s Bashar
al-Assad. Presidents have enormous power
over foreign policy. Trump
did not use it in areas where he could have
– Ukraine and Russia.
Trump was not a victim of deep
state
- a government
within a government sabotaging lawful
authority. Trump was his own
deep state
sabotaging on the sly a policy he had
ordered in writing. Trump
found
the military would not be his toy army when
he wanted a
military parade in Washington like France’s
Bastille Day. The
Pentagon found reasons why it could not be
done. A compromise was
reached in July 2019. The service chiefs
declined to attend.
In
2017
Trump was rebuked after his comments on a
Neo-Nazi parade in
Charlottesville. A car was driven into
counter-protestors killing a
woman. Trump said there were good people on
both sides. All four
service chiefs were clear – their force was
not racialist and did
not support intolerance and hatred. Trump’s
standing fell in the
armed forces during 2018 and 2019. When he
pulled troops out of Syria
and green-lit the Turkish invasion the
military was surprised and
called it a breach of trust, and the
military managed to find a way
of having a major fraction of the forces
return to protect the oil
fields from ISIS. Watergate
reminds
that presidential action can be illegal –
and illegal even
if it fails. Nixon’s scheme to blame the CIA
failed as did Trump’s
scheme to extort from the Ukraine.
Presidents have power to pardon
anyone for a federal offence. As Trump
demonstrated, it can be for
any reason. However, he could be impeached
if pardons were sold for
bribes.
What
Trump
referred to as “deep state” was really just
the rule of
law. Yet as Trump defied the rule of law,
his administration
empowered the deep state of economic
monopoly and privileged favour
seeking. The 21
st century US economy has become more
concentrated. Growth has
slowed, wages have stagnated, but profits
have soared as powerful
interests extract higher returns. Health
care is the worst example,
with higher education runner up. In the
1990s Americans paid less for
internet and mobile phones than Europeans
– now they pay
substantially more. In December 2019 the
Federal Reserve reported on
Trump’s economic policies for consumer
welfare: “... the tariffs
have not boosted manufacturing, employment
or output even as they
increased producer prices.” The
Trump
tax cuts were justified as enticing US
corporations to book
profits where the government could tax.
However, lobbying of the
Treasury Department led to regulations
allowing many US and foreign
companies to owe little on offshore profits.
The defeat of the
attempt to tax offshore profits expanded the
budget deficit more than
planned. The combination of increasingly
dysfunctional democracy with
plutocratic economy means taxes avoided by
those best able to pay now
will be repaid in future by the least able. 7.
How
to Lose to Trump. The
Democrats
have moved left with temptations to repeat
the major policy
shift like Reagan did to Carter. The real
danger is that many
Americans who do not like Trump do not like
the style and tone of the
new left agenda either. This chapter
essentially argues in favour of
Republican policies or at least
sensitivities to them. I think a
better case can be made for a non-divisive
administration – and
that means an administration that tries to
manage with understanding
the widespread sensitivities like political
correctness, race,
immigration, gender. Above all, this chapter
reminds progressives one
is for Trump or against him. So vote against
him. I agree with that. Part
II
A New Age of Reform 8.
Unrigging
the system.
There is more going on than Trump. October
2017 saw the #MeToo
movement. In 2018 Congress reversed a
22-year ban on federal funding
for gun safety research; November 2018
raised the minimum age for gun
possession. In April 2017 The National
Lynching Memorial opened in
Montgomery Alabama. In 2019 six states
restricted plastic waste.
Electric cars doubled 2016-2018. Coal’s
share of electric
generation continued to fall – with big
plants closing in Arizona
and Pennsylvania. Tolerance is rising – same
sex marriage is
accepted. Trump has provoked a broad
revulsion against misogyny,
bigotry, corruption and cruelty. This
may
herald an era of reform – but polling showed
Iowa Democrats
favour moderate reforms like improving
healthcare and finding common
ground. A lot can be done with modest
reforms. A big needed reform
like an election spending limit requires an
unlikely big consensus
and faces a very conservative judiciary.
There are lesser big
changes. Post
Trump,
publishing tax returns of presidential
candidates must be
mandatory. If the Senate goes Democrat, its
filibuster must go. This
is a Senate rule that allows 41 senators to
indefinitely delay
legislation. Statehood for residential
Washington DC, without the
filibuster, would only require majority
votes in both houses. This
state would be bigger than Wyoming or
Vermont and less dependent on
federal assistance than Texas or Georgia. A
federal voting rights law
would address present abuses – perhaps it
should contain provision
for a federal tamper-proof ID provided for
all citizens to please
Republicans – and also regulate location of
voting, access to
reliable voter technology and equal waiting
periods.
To
deter
gerrymandering requires persuading the
Supreme Court to reverse
recent precedent or gain 2-party buy in.
However a unilateral fix
could result if the Democratic National
Committee hired a commission
of experts to draw best practice maps for
every state and federal
district in the country. Then offer quid pro
quo to Republicans. The
longer term aim should be to get
redistricting out of the hands of
politicians. Law
enforcement
can be depoliticized by overhauling the
federal criminal
justice system into a fully non-political
one. Low remuneration for
US attorneys is an issue for attracting a
commitment from highly
capable lawyers. Trump
arose
because Americans felt their government was
not delivering.
Those feelings will not go when Trump goes.
There will be a legacy
of recession, trade wars, debt, climate
crisis, cracked up alliances,
and confrontations with Iran and China. To
stabilize democracy, a
Democratic government must deliver on things
that matter most. 9.
Uniting
“Us” and “Them.”
A poll before the 2018 election (ahem) had
87% of Democrats put
health care and 87% treatment of women as
top concerns; 84% of Republicans put
immigration as a top concern and 85% put
economy. (In
2006 Mitt Romney sought the Republican
nomination with a proposal for
universal health insurance.) For
Frum,
the problem in US health care is not who
finances it but who
negotiates the costs. It is not just
Medicare recipients that need
government concern it is those who see
health care devouring more and
more of their incomes into the coffers of
health providers. Obamacare
was attacked as socialist by seniors
receiving a more socialist
Medicare. They were afraid Obamacare would
reduce their Medicare. In
countries like the UK health care is a
source of unity. The
US
spirit of unity is dissolving and so is the
willingness of groups
to care for one another. This has weakened
the nation but
strengthened party identity. However excess
partisanship can
backfire. Kentucky went Republican in a big
way so that before the
2018 election they held every office and 2
Senate seats. Kentucky had
attacked health coverage with waivers to
Affordable Care Act rules.
But by the time 2018 arrived 44% of
Kentuckians approved the ACA. In
2018 the Republican governor was removed.
Frum
says
a Democrat blind spot is immigration. In the
2018 election the
turnout of both parties was high. The
immigration issue and an
anti-immigration caravan helped turn out the
Republican vote despite
an otherwise unpopular president. If
Democrats
want to perpetuate health care reforms they
need to
solidify a sense of national belonging. If
Republicans want to
safeguard the border they must offer a
better deal to those living on
the border’s American side. FDR cared about
creating a sense of
“right” and “belonging” to social security
by tying it to
payroll. The ACA lacks that.
Sometimes
in
politics things that cannot be done by the
parties separately can
be done by working together: SNAP – the
former food stamp program
-- was compromise; and Clinton swapped more
health coverage for poor
children for a cut in capital gains tax.
Health care and immigration
might be a match? Whatever the policy, by
the mid-2040s the US will
cease to be majority non-Hispanic white. And
in this is a world that
is already determined Americans need each
other. Enhancing providing
for each other adds to national belonging
and vice-versa. 10.
Greener
Planet, Better Jobs. Liberal
societies
flourish on optimism and fail on pessimism.
Two big fears:
a fear that long-settled populations will be
replaced by immigrants;
and, for the younger and environmentally
minded, fear that humanity
is destroying the environment that supports
human civilization.
Family support for the young is inadequate
while increasing numbers
of aged get social security and medicare.
Climate rejectionism is a
theme of modern day conservatism. To many
the topic is aggression –
they feel attacked by a 16-year old
schoolgirl from Sweden.
Conservatives feel watched and judged. Frum
doesn’t explain this –
except he says that climate change concern
began as a non-partisan
issue and that a battle to maintain it took
place in the George W
Bush administration and was lost. Frum
challenges
the use of climate change as a foil to
launch a WWII style
government- run economic system; he says
rather that climate change
is a summons to human reason and problem
solving. Success will be
shifting the debate from accusations to
solutions, from identity to
policy. Release of CO2 from fossil fuel is
to blame. The release
peaked for the EU in 1990; for the US the
peak was 2005, but it is
still too much. The growing release by the
developing world is
offsetting developed world reductions.
Massive amounts of plastic are
also produced from fossil fuel. Migration is
linked to climate
change. Frum fears China’s trying reckless
ideas like blocking
solar radiation. He says US leadership could
help. The
financial
relationship with China is a problem.
China’s corrupt
closed financial system prevents investment.
And China’s currency
manipulation doesn’t help. The dollars
earned by China should flow
into markets – buying US goods or real
estate. Instead the trade
deficit goes up. Jobs shift to China faster
than they otherwise
would. As production moves, so does
pollution. The
Frum
solution: the US balances its budgets; China
opens its markets;
everybody needs to emit less. Put a carbon
tax on fossil fuels and
plastics. That carbon tax is a tariff that
can be a tool for
cooperation in reduction of fossil fuel and
the plastics that come
from them. Countries could do it together –
so that if everyone is
doing it goods could enter tariff free.
There is no need for a vegan
program. Frum says a drop in red meat
consumption is already underway
in the US, and US agriculture is a small
contributor to greenhouse
gasses. For
the
cities – reduce the commute. Provide
apartment housing above
malls and low-rise office blocks over
parking lots and you can have
live-work-play area suburbs. For the rural
scene encourage wind
plantations and solar fields to employ the
under-employed and
alienated – especially young men. Frum
also
likes getting into big time sequestering CO2
– putting it into
a safe long-term storage. Frum suggests that
nuclear power, despite
its risks, could provide the large amount of
energy needed for
sequestering CO2. I note that an obvious
alternative is leaving the
oil and gas where it is. It’s already been
sequestered stably for
thousands of years without the need for high
cost nuclear power. The
US
military could be asked to protect Americans
from threats like
climate change as well as from classical
military threats. Given that
it has a large budget, that would not draw
budget dollars from other
needed initiatives. And
a
carbon-reversing economy can still be a free
enterprise economy
says Frum. 11.
Great
Again. Trump
whacked the world trading system, reviled US
allies, tried to bust
the EU, watched South Korea and Japan
wrangle, betrayed Kurds, sold
out to Ukranians. North Korea, Taliban,
Russia and China all stood
taller, and at the beginning of 2020 there
was risk of war with Iran.
Now as events catch up with Trump, it falls
to the US working with
their allies to build a better world back:
reviving trade agreements,
re-committing to climate agreements,
renewing international
cooperation. Something
like
the Obama tour beginning in 2009 to reset
the US relationship
with the Islamic world will be needed to
make amends. New modes of
cooperation will be needed. Brazil and
Indonesia are climate change
super-powers given their reforestation
capacities. The US/Japan and
US/South Korea relationships will need
warming. Any toughness with
China needs to be respectful. The US can
still lead, but it must lead
by consent. It’s on Americans to justify
their international
friends’ belief in America by ensuring
Trump’s presidency comes
to its deserved crushing end. 12.
Against
Revenge. The
final chapter reflects on Republicans and
Trump. With Trump came a
gigantic tax cut – constraining a future
president. The Trump
administration tightened the conservative
grip on federal judiciary.
They undid environmental regulations. They
repealed action against
climate change. The political and economic
bill came due in 2018. The
Democrats won the House and gained 7
governorships. In the elections
of 2018 Republicans were crushed in
Virginia, suburban and exurban
Philadelphia, and were beaten in Kentucky.
The needs of business in
the modern world do not fit the message and
practice of Trump
politics. For
forty
years wealth and power have concentrated in
fewer hands and the
US is due for a shift to the left. Wealth
may be taxed more heavily.
Labour may be protected more aggressively.
Companies and industries
may be regulated more intrusively. Social
insurance may expand more
expensively. The pendulum of politics
usually swings too far and
someone needs to be there to push it back.
Trump will go out of
fashion. But American conservatism contains
truths that will be
rediscovered by people for whom Trump will
seem a sad squalid figure
out of history. In one term, Trump managed
to do immense damage to
the world, the US and his party. It will
take a long time to repair.
The
best
intentioned most public-spirited people had
to made deals with
the devil to accomplish anything in the
Trump years. Outside
government, people with reputation supported
the pro-Trump cause.
Many were in on the scam from the start and
will leave it when it
finally deflates.
But
there
are tens of millions of Americans that were
duped. Trump played
on the fears, hatreds and prejudices that
human beings have. They are
just fellow Americans. Ultimately, Frum
believes the US has stood for
something bigger than crass immediate
commercial interest. Embattled
people all over the world could hope that
their struggles might be
reinforced by a power for good. That hope
has given Americans faith
in themselves at moments of uncertainty.
Championing democracy
worldwide sends the signal home – this is
who we are – we are not
the bully Trump.
Reforms
suggested
could stabilize the country if undertaken in
the spirit of
reconciliation. The intentionally bad actors
deserve harsh judgment.
But most were fallible human beings.
Deceived by those they trusted –
Fox News, Facebook – into a lagoon of
ignorance, then caught in the
nets of irresponsible politicians. Yes, they
could have tried to
overcome prejudices, yes they could have
sought more information, yes
they made bad choices. In the end they
remain countrymen. They are
not going anywhere.