Mark Jacobson’s book No Miracles
Needed: How Today’s Technology Can
Save Our Climate and Clean Our Air, 2023,
Cambridge University Press, is
an encyclopedic
paperback full of explanations. The book
explains how Wind, Water and Solar
power (WWS) - with storage - can provide clean
electricity that can run
everything in modern life – light, heat, air
conditioning, information,
mobility and manufacturing. WSS solutions come
at lower cost, can be put in
place faster and are less vulnerable to forms
of terrorism or war than big
centralized plants. Going to an all-electric
society run from wind, water and
solar power with storage is the fastest way to
respond to global warming and climate
change. Each chapter
is a bit like a written lecture on
the chapter topic. Although thorough, they are
readable. One can learn about a
whole lot of things that can be done with WWS.
The chapter written on “why not”
for other energy sources like nuclear and
natural gas (mainly fracked gas) presents
strong arguments to go “clean”, to WWS, for
human health as well as for global
warming. There is the hidden need for mining
for uranium fuel and for disposal
of accumulating millennia-lasting radioactive
waste, or the need for on-going fracking
for gas fuel and the environmental impact.
Each “why not” section delves beyond
my summary. The book would serve well as a
reference work on topics covered. Chapters
9, 10 and 11 are particularly detailed and
instructive on electricity grids,
photovoltaic and solar power and on onshore
and offshore wind turbines. Chapters
12,13 and 14 describe steps needed to attain
the feasible 100% WWS, methods for
continuously meeting energy demand and
planning a timeline and policies for the
transition. The last chapter, 15, gives the
author’s personal journey to implementing
a WWS approach in US states. I give a smaller
summary of chapters 9 to 15. The book
shows that there is more than enough
solar voltaic electricity potential for a 2050
electrified world’s electricity
needs and more available from wind turbines.
For those of us in the northern
temperate areas, pairing solar and wind is
recommended because these tend to
complement one another. Although solar works
best facing direct sunlight it can
generate with less light. Light in the arctic
can provide solar voltaic electricity.
However, solar and wind generators require
storage for periods of no wind and
no light. To meet
heating and cooling needs, it is
possible to turn times of surplus electricity
production into stored reservoirs
– a hot water reservoir or a stored ice
reservoir - to complement or be
complemented by heat pump electrical heating
and cooling at other times. Along the way
there are tips that could be
helpful for Ontario. The paired wind and solar
generators require storage to
maintain an electrical grid. Ontario hydro has
taken the suggestion of using batteries
in the long term. In the short term, Ontario
is using more natural gas for electricity
generation. That translates into more CO2,
more pollution and more fracking in
the US and Western Canada. However,
hydroelectric power generators are very good
at providing a fast response when electricity
demand goes beyond the expected. They
are better than natural gas as an interim,
alternative or supplement to battery
storage. Advocacy groups note the anticipated
strengthened long-distance electricity
grid could use Quebec’s hydroelectric power in
that way. The author notes a low
cost for adding additional turbines and water
dam storage to existing hydro power
plants so that they can take on the separate
function of kicking in more power when
demand surges beyond the baseline power
capacity of main hydro power plants. There
was something like this at the Niagara Falls
plant. That kind of add-on capacity
might be developed at hydro plants around
Ontario. It could also be that small
additional hydro plants could be built at
modest cost on rivers and falls to
handle surge demand only when the location is
not suitable for baseline electrical
supply. A final note
on storage by battery. Battery costs
are falling. Iron oxide batteries are being
developed that portend cheaper battery
storage. These are unsuitable for vehicles
like cars on account of their higher
weight. But for parked on-ground or wall
storage they may be useful and bring
the price of battery storage down further.
Related to this, it might be feasible
to re purpose used lithium-ion car batteries
for a second life for home, building
or area battery storage. This would provide a
commercial opportunity. All of these
storage options means that it
should be possible to move to solar plus wind
electricity faster and to avoid
the nuclear plant option which is costly in
time and money to build and maintain,
leading to very costly electricity. There are
human and ecological costs to mining
the fuel and providing the almost eternal safe
storage for accumulating radioactive
waste. Here is a
content summary of the chapters this
book. One: Why a WSS
Electrical
System From the top,
chapter one sets out the
problems to be solved: fossil fuels cause air
pollution, health damage, climate
damage and risks to energy security. Particles
like brown and black carbon and
some gases in the atmosphere can be pollutants
or they can be natural greenhouse
gases like oxygen or carbon dioxide.
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm it,
particles warm or cool and pose health
hazards. The excess of greenhouse gases and
particles come from burning fossil fuels like
coal, gas or crude oil and its many
refined products; burning bioenergy like dung
or ethanol; and burning biomass
like woods or grasslands. New reports around
smog in summer tell us about such
health impacts from burning natural gas in
generating stations and gasoline in
cars. But gas and particle effluents are
ongoing and impacting human health year-round. Carbon
dioxide, CO2, is the greenhouse gas
responsible
for most environmental heating because it
remains and accumulates in the
atmosphere. Black carbon particles are the
next biggest heater because they are
continually produced. There are also cooling
particles that reflect sunlight
and thicken clouds. Since all particles are a
major health hazard removing both
kinds together is the best way to go. Then
there is “energy insecurity” from
various energy sources – like centralized
plants and big refineries, and the safe
storage of radioactive waste for thousands of
years. The insecurity is reduced by
dispersed sustainable energy from WWS. Two: The WWS
Electrical
System. The
components of a WWS electrical system include: ·
electricity
and
heat generation; ·
hydrogen,
H2, generation
by WWS electricity; ·
storage
of electricity,
of heat, of cold and of H2 (hydrogen gas); ·
transportation
by
vehicles run by battery or H2; ·
heating
and
cooling buildings by electric heat pumps plus
solar and geothermal; ·
running
industry
using electricity-based technologies; and ·
I
add from Chapter
Nine: an
electricity grid. A subsection
describes onshore wind farms and
offshore, each with a few to dozens of
wind turbines. Those off shore tend to
be more numerous, to get almost
continuous winds and to be higher so as to
reach up where the winds are
stronger. Winds vary giving varying turbine
speeds and electrical output that
varies with time. Although all generators are
variable in some manner, wind
turbines are known as a variable or
intermittent WWS resource. Combining wind
with batteries and other sources of
electricity helps match changing demand for
electricity with supply. A subsection
introduces water wave electricity from
bobbing devices and the like. Geothermal
energy for heating buildings or
generating electricity is described in flash
steam plants and in binary
geothermal plants. A section
describes forms of hydroelectricity.
The large dam with outflows through a channel
or pipe can run water turbines
stably and continuously with rapidly
adjustable flow to respond to changing
demands for electricity. The flow of a river
driving a hydro electric generator
that has a separate reservoir upstream can be
run in similar fashion. Extra flow
and generation can be begun and varied very
quickly in a “peaking power” manner
to meet peaks which wind and solar cannot
meet. A hydro power
plant can provide a steady base
power but plants can also be retrofitted with
extra turbines that can be used
to quickly add power for a peaking power
demand. This is “one of the most
immediate, cost effective and environmentally
acceptable means of developing
additional electric power.” Natural gas
burning plants are often used to serve
the peaking power generation role. It is
interesting to note that only a few
dams in the world and in the US have
hydroelectric power generation associated
with them. Electricity
generated by underwater turbines that
use tidal and ocean flow, for example, sends
power to the Faroe Islands. Solar
photovoltaic (PV) electricity is generated by
PV panels comprising cells that
generate electricity by direct or indirect
sunlight, often in big arrays just
above the ground. They can be at a fixed angle
or rotated to face the sun. PV
electricity is intermittent and requires forms
of storage like batteries to
provide base load and peak availability.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) uses mirror
arrays to focus direct sunlight to heat a
collector containing a fluid – oil or
molten salt - to high temperature to drive a
steam turbine generator with
recycling water. This requires electrical
storage, but some of that can be
built into the CPV system as heat storage. CSP
is best used in a desert. Unlike
PV electricity that can work with indirect
sunlight and in cold areas like the
arctic, CSP relies on direct sunlight and its
heating power. Three: WSS and
Storage.
Typical
hydroelectric plants operate using water
stored behind a dam. They can work as baseload
or load-following or peaking power
plants. As peaking plants, they respond from
zero to full power within 15-30 seconds
compared with a natural gas plant which can
take 5 minutes or more. Pumped hydropower
can also respond quickly. A pumped generator
has an upper reservoir and a lower
one that can be a lake or the ocean. With
excess electricity and low price, the water
is pumped electrically into the upper
reservoir. When electricity is needed the
water is sent down through turbines going from
zero to full power in seconds. A battery is
an electrochemical cell that converts
chemical energy to electricity. The battery is
charged by applying electricity
and can discharge to supply electricity. The
round-trip efficiency is used to
measure the amount of charge given that can be
discharged. The number of times a
cell can be charged and then discharged
matters. Typically, Lithium ion (Li
ion) batteries can be charged and discharged
500-1000 times. Other types of cells
are in use. There is an Iron-rust cell that is
cheaper but heavier than a Li
ion cell so it can be used for stationary
batteries on a floor or walls. Concentrated
solar power can easily include
storage of the heat generated and so store
power. Flywheels are an intriguing
storage method. Although they don’t hold much
energy, they can discharge the
energy very quickly making flywheels useful
for rapidly charging an electric
car battery. Compressed air that is stored can
be used to compensate for
intermittent clean energy sources. Similarly,
gravitational storage with large masses
can store energy. Excess electricity can move
weights up a mountain with a
motor and let them go back down when needed to
generating electricity. These
more unusual storage methods are explained
more fully in the chapter. Four: WWS for
transportation. Battery
powered vehicles may not be totally clean
if the electricity is not WWS. However, there
is no tailpipe on an electric car.
Gas cars cause more health effecting pollution
because of the nearness of people
to street traffic exhaust compared with
exposure to effluent from a gas power
plant! Electric cars use regenerative breaking
and hence less particle pollution
from the tiny particles which are constantly
entering the atmosphere from the brake
pads of gas burning cars. Electric cars are
also more efficient. From two thirds
to ninety percent of the power from
electricity ends up moving the car – the
rest is lost as heat. For a gas car, 17-20% of
the energy in gasoline goes to
moving the car - the rest is lost as heat.
Moving from fossil fuel to electric
cars reduces the energy being used to move by
a factor of 3 to 5 times. Battery
electricity can be used to power light
duty vehicles and also short and medium range
semi-trucks, short range aircraft
and short distance boats and ships. A short
history is given of these types of
vehicles with current examples. Li ion
batteries contain toxic chemicals. The
main concern arises if they are dumped.
Recycling is developing so dumping isn’t
necessary. There are questions about world
supplies of lithium for making batteries.
And alternatives like iron-air batteries are
heavier. There are related questions
about world supplies of neodymium used in
permanent magnet motors. However, the
amount needed for motors is much less than the
amount used in wind turbine production
where access to supplies has not been a
limiting factor. And there is an
alternative compound here too – iron nitride. The heading
“Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles”,
talks first about hydrogen gas, then about
“green” hydrogen made by electrical
hydrolysis of water, then about hydrogen
storage as a compressed gas or as
liquid hydrogen which is very cold as well as
compressed. Hydrogen is useful in
the WWS world because excess electricity
supply can produce hydrogen for
storage to be used later in hydrogen fuel
cells. The fuel cell burns hydrogen
with air to produce water and electricity. Certain types
of vehicles will need to use multiple
hydrogen fuel cells. For the battery car, the
efficiency is much higher than
that coming from the use of a fuel cell. In a
smaller vehicle the inefficiencies
of the processes of turning electricity to
hydrogen and then back to electricity
from a fuel cell are too large. Yet for very
large vehicles like long distance
heavy commercial vehicles, trains, big
airplanes and military vehicles, things
change because a bigger vehicle must otherwise
use more and more energy to
carry its batteries – which are heavy. Even
though extra equipment must be
carried for hydrogen fuel storage and for
running hydrogen fuel cells, the
hydrogen fuel itself is light and its weight
decreases during the trip and
usage! The heavier the vehicle and the further
it has to go, the greater the advantage
of the hydrogen fuel cells. Commercial
semi-trucks typically go 1,000 km before
refuelling. Hydrogen fuel cells typically
become advantageous compared with a
battery for distances over 800km. The chapter
closes with examples of fuel cell
vehicles. Five: WSS and
meeting
needs for buildings. Heating and
cooling can come from WSS electrical
heat pumps drawing heat or cold from the air,
the ground, water or a waste
stream. The heat or cold can be stored or used
immediately. Additional heat may
come from geothermal or solar heat. There are
sections on various historical generations
of district heating and cooling systems. An
advantage is avoiding individual
heat pumps for buildings and allowing storage
of heat or cold for later use. A variant
is cold storage on ice in which off-peak
available electricity is used to
freeze water to ice then water is run through
pipes in the ice to radiators for
cooling at peak times in the day. The cost is
less than just using battery
storage for the electricity. Another method is
solar heat thermal energy put into
the ground during summer for use in winter.
Variants for storage discussed are bore
holes, pits or aquifers in the ground.
Efficiency is around 50% meaning half
the energy employed and stored can be used.
Stanford University, California,
runs a district heating and cooling system
powered by Solar PV that also provides
the electrical needs of the university. There is a
section on heating and cooling
individual buildings such as rooftop solar
water heaters, heat pumps, and passive
heating and cooling. Thermal mass can be
considered in materials used, latent energy
materials, ventilated façades, window blinds
or films and night ventilation. WWS
appliances and machines are discussed and this
subsection is followed by a full list of
strategies for increasing energy efficiency
and reducing energy use. The chapter ends with
a description of the author’s WWS
electric home which uses solar PV. Note that
there is a saving from the usual
cost of piping and connections for gas in an
all-electric home. Six: WWS and
Strategies
for Industry. The use of
heat dominates today’s energy use
by industry with half of industry on high
heat. More than 400C is needed for
plastics and rubber manufacturing, casting,
steel and other metal production
and heat treating, glass production, cement
manufacture, iron making and producing
silicon from sand. The rest of industry uses
low ~200C or medium ~400C for such
things as drying and washing in food
preparation, chemical manufacture, cracking,
petroleum refining, distilling, pulp and
paper. The current
energy for industry heating comes
from burning fossil fuels or biomass,
electricity and steam. In the US, 48% of
industry uses burning fuels, 22% use
electricity and 29% use steam. There is
much change to come in energy sources but
additional change is needed to the processes
themselves. For example, the chemistry of
current cement manufacturing releases
CO2. Electric arc
furnaces could replace fuel burning
heating for steel making and casting metals.
The furnaces require much energy but
can take advantage of electricity
availability. Induction furnaces could be
used to melt metals (iron, steel and copper
and others) but unlike the arc furnace
the temperature does not exceed that of the
melting temperature of the metal.
Electrical resistance furnaces could be used
in a range of industries but in particular
in heating long rods, heating iron containing
metals prior to forging, and continuous
annealing of wire. Dielectric heaters, radio
wave or microwave are used for
lower temperature heating. Radio waves for
most industrial heating for gluing,
plastic production, preheating, bread baking,
textile and paper drying. Microwaves
are used for tempering meat and other food
processing applications. Electron beam
heating is produced in a large vacuum furnace
to mass produce steel and purify
metals like tungsten, titanium, molybdenum for
the electronics industry. Steam
is needed for low and some medium temperature
processes in a WWS world.
Presently steam is often a by-product of
electricity generation by burning fossil
fuels. Steam can be produced by a heat pump
using electricity or co-generated
from a CSP electricity plant. The current
methods of making iron and steel involve
not only CO2 from fossil fuels, but also CO2
from the chemical reactions involved.
Blast furnace iron comes from heating coke
with iron ore and limestone (Calcium
Carbonate) and passing hot air. Similarly, the
production of steel from carbon
and iron in an oxygen furnace releases CO2.
Over 90% of the CO2 can be avoided by
using hydrogen reduction to produce iron. That
can rely on WWS electricity and
related hydrogen. This has been done
commercially in Sweden. Another
alternative method that reduces CO2 production
uses molten oxide electrolysis of
the heated iron ore to produce iron. The concrete
industry emits 8% of the world’s CO2
production from the chemical reactions making
common or Portland cement. There
are alternatives. Geopolymer cement can be
used to make concrete. Ferrock is a
harder and more flexible commercial
alternative to cement. Concrete that is free
from trash wood and paper can be recycled. It
is possible to trap CO2 within cement.
Reaction of CO2 with the CaO present in the
clinker of Portland cement creates
limestone in the cement. Use of WWS
electricity removes the air pollution other
than CO2 that comes from fossil fuels. Silicon is
used in semi-conductors and also in
alloys with iron and aluminum. Silicon
purification presently relies on heating
sand with graphite carbon – a process that
releases CO2. There are several ways
of producing pure silicon from inexpensive
ingredients without producing CO2,
but commercialization of these possibilities
is still needed. Seven: Solutions
for Non-Energy
Emissions These
non-energy emissions include gases and
particles from open burning of biomass,
methane from agriculture and landfill
waste, halogens from leaks and careless
disposal, nitrous oxide from the fertilizer
industry, and wastewater treatment. Biomass
burning is forest or grassland burning
to clear land or stimulate growth. It can also
result from lightning. There is
also waste burning. The only solution is to
stop it. All biomass burning causes
net global warming. Even though CO2 is
eventually absorbed if there is new
growth, release of particles and other gases
warm the climate too. Using an
incinerator for waste allows some emissions to
be controlled, but not CO2. Burning
agricultural waste like excess straw or sugar
cane leaves can be replaced by tilling
the waste into the topsoil for aerobic
digestion. Yet the only way to prevent
emissions from burning landfill waste is to
stop doing it. Methane gas,
marsh gas, increases global
warming and contributes to more ozone, O3,
that is another greenhouse gas. Methane
comes from burning biomass, leaks of natural
gas and biological sources like
bacterial action in landfill, rice paddy
fields, the stomachs and manure of
farm animals and, sewage plants – indeed
anywhere without air oxygen. Changing our
diet from meat reduces the number of farm
animals and their consequent methane
production.
Methane released from manure can be captured
by a methane digester. In a WWS
world, methane would be used only for steam
reformation to produce H2 for fuel cells.
Methane gas from landfills can also be
captured along with other landfill
gases, separated and used to make H2, but this
is not being done. Halogens such
as chlorine are powerful greenhouse
gases entering the atmosphere by leaks and
improper disposal. Less potent climate
warming halogens or other gases can be
substituted and more stringent conditions
for storing and disposing halogens can be
introduced – worldwide. Nitrous oxide
is a powerful greenhouse gas,
largely resulting from agriculture and in
particular from fertilizer. Cultivation
of legumes – peas and beans – produces it. And
the solid waste of domesticated
animals contains it. The evaporation of
ammonia from fertilizers is an emission
into the air where it dissolves in aerosol
particles swelling them and encouraging
water to condense. The swollen particles
reduce visibility and absorb more toxic
gases from the air. The effects pose health
problems associated with
respiration.
The responses to
agricultural production are to use less
nitrogen-based fertilizer, grow legumes
within a crop rotation and reducing tillage to
reduce breakdown of the fertilizer.
Other anthropogenic production of nitrous
oxide is eliminated by adopting a WWS
system and not burning fossil fuels or
biomass. Industrial production occurs (using
energy) in the production of nitric acid for
fertilizers and adipic acid for making
nylon fibres and plastics. These have been
reduced by emission control technologies
in several plants. Eight: What
Doesn’t
Work Non-WWS
technologies should not be used. Non-WWS
technologies
result in greater global warming, greater air
pollution and greater land degradation
than a WWS system. Some also
increase energy insecurity or take 20
years from planning to plant operation which
is too long to allow global warming
to continue in the short time available to
stop it. All bridging technologies pending
other developments increase ongoing global
warming. Meanwhile WWS is already available
and fast to implement. 1. History
of Fossil Fuels. There
is a history
of fossil fuels starting from coal, wood and
natural gas known in ancient times,
to major coal use, then oil in the late 19th
century. Oil was used to make
transportation fuel, heat, asphalt,
lubricants, plastics and synthetic clothing.
These are not wanted in a WWS non-polluting
world. 2.
Comparing Energy Technologies. This
section
explains how technologies can be properly
compared. The basic parameter for
comparisons is equivalent CO2 emissions. But
there are other factors for each
technology. A summary graph is provided
showing the various factors considered for
each technology. Methane is a more powerful
atmospheric heater in the short term
so that its CO2 equivalent over 20yrs will be
bigger than its CO2 equivalent over
100yrs. It is important to compare lifecycle
emissions of generating technologies
over relatively short periods like 20yrs
during which the world has to stop further
global warming. The lifecycle
for electricity generating
plants includes CO2 equivalent emissions
during plant construction, operation
and decommissioning per unit of electricity
over 20yrs or 100yrs. For fossil
fuels, including uranium, emissions include
those from mining, processing and transporting
the fuel, running the plant equipment,
repairing the plant and disposing of waste
during the plant’s lifecycle. Note that for
WSS there is no fuel mining and no
waste. “Opportunity
cost” emissions are emissions on-going
in a power grid as a result of the longer-time
planning and development of a plant
as compared with an existing plant requiring
shorter development time. The
opportunity cost emissions are the background
emissions of the grid for the
difference in years for development. Jacobson
provides a chart of lifecycle
emissions and opportunity emissions for the
technologies considered. Anthropomorphic
or human-made heat emissions
contributing to global warming must be added.
Electric generating plants using fossil
fuels release a major fraction of the energy
from the fuel as heat. For nuclear
75% of the energy from the uranium fission is
waste heat released into air or
water. Other forms of human-made heating come
from burning fuels to move vehicles,
or using biomass for heating, or using an
electric stove to cook. Note that solar
PV and wind power actually reduce heat. The
solar panel blocks the sun and uses
its energy. The energy of motion of the wind,
kinetic energy, is converted to
electricity by a wind turbine thereby
“cooling” the wind. Burning
fossil fuels or biomass releases water.
Electric generating plants based on these
fuels use water cooling, and water vapour
evaporates from cooling towers or from the
surface of warmer lake water where
cooling water is released. Water vapour from
all human sources amounts to 0.23%
of gross global warming. Leaks of CO2
sequestered underground have been
estimated at 0.1 to 10% per 1000 years. CO2
produced from developing land comes
from having concrete instead of grass, trees
and undergrowth that could have
removed CO2 by photosynthesis. This can be
estimated in CO2 equivalents for
building a generating station. The result of
all these considerations of CO2
equivalents is shown on the graph presented
near the beginning of this section
of the chapter. It shows clearly that WWS
produce lower lifetime CO2 emissions
than other technologies. WWS systems also
reduce air pollution whereas other
technologies do not. 3. Why Not
Natural Gas as a Bridge Fuel. Natural gas
is mainly
used for generating electricity, building
heating and industrial heating. In
the US in 2015 two thirds of natural gas came
from shale and the main method
was fracking – pumping large volumes of water
and chemicals underground. More methane
leaks from this method than from a
conventional oil well. Methane also leaks in
transmission, distribution and processing of
natural gas. Natural gas is used
to make electricity in combined cycle turbine
or an open cycle turbine. The combined
cycle produces 150% more electricity than the
open cycle for the same amount of
natural gas, but the open cycle produces
electricity faster from a cold start –
the anticipated bridging role. It is assumed
natural gas produces less global
warming than coal and that natural gas is
better suited to intermittent
renewable energy sources than coal. However,
natural gas in an electric power
plant substantially increases global warming
compared to coal over a 20-year time
frame, in part because coal produces
additional pollutants that provide cooling
in the short term. Over a 100-year time frame
coal is worse for global warming,
but the difference is not large. Coal use
creates more pollution causing
deaths. Both coal and natural gas cause more
climate damage and pollution deaths
than WWS. Natural gas
could help provide peak and load-following
electricity production, but it is not needed.
WWS electricity with storage can
provide peak and load-following electricity.
By 2021 a system of wind, solar and
batteries was already costing less than
natural gas. Even in 2019, a Florida
utility replaced 2 natural gas plants with a
solar plus battery system because
of the lower cost. Additionally, the
continuous use of natural gas for heat and
electricity further degrades the land with
increasing wells, pads, roads, pipes
and on-going fracking. After the 20-to-30-year
lifetime the land has few uses for
anything else. Methane leaks continue. And
blowouts have been known. 4. Why not
carbon capture? First,
burning gas
or coal increases emissions other than CO2
that cause health risks and deaths. And
carbon capture only partially reduces the CO2.
It increases land degradation from
on-going mining. It increases fossil fuel
infrastructure and diverts funding
from lower cost renewables that far better
reduce CO2 and other pollutants. Under
the very best conditions equipment can capture
over 75% from a concentrated
exhaust stream. However, given shutdowns and
maintenance of capture equipment
the yearly average is 20-80%. And the
equipment does nothing about upstream mining
or other emissions. Health-related emissions
are not captured. The plant with
capture equipment uses 25-50% more energy that
comes as a result of CO2 emissions
– either because fossil fuel was used or
because WWS was diverted from direct
use. If the captured CO2 is used for enhanced
oil recovery or synthetic fuels,
40% of the captured carbon is released back
into the air. If sequestered
underground, leakage back to the air occurs
over time. 5. Why not
nuclear power? Mined uranium
235 is bombarded with outside neutrons
and a chain reaction produces fragments,
uranium-236 and gamma rays with lots
of heat. In a boiling water plant this
produces steam directly to drive a
turbine. The steam is cooled in a condenser
using lake, river or sea water and the
resulting water returned to the reactor to
remake steam. In such reactors the
uranium fuel is stored in ceramic pellets
inside a metal fuel rod that
typically lasts around 6 years after which it
becomes radioactive waste to be
stored for hundreds of thousands of years.
There is still uranium-235 and natural
uranium in the rod. This uranium and also
plutonium-239 can be extracted and
reprocessed for use in a breeder reactor
reducing the waste significantly but greatly
increasing the cost. It also increases the
possibility of production of
plutonium-239 for nuclear weapons. There are
around 400 reactors in 30 countries.
Only 2 are breeders. Smaller 1/3 size reactors
have been proposed some of which
would be “fast
reactors”. Fast reactors use
a fuel mix to enhance the creation of
plutonium 239 so that the reactor is like
the breeder, increasing risk of weapons
proliferation.
In sum, slow reactors produce
significant radioactive
waste; fast reactors increase the risk of
weapons proliferation. A larger number
of smaller reactors adds to that risk. At any rate,
no small modular reactor is
expected before 2030 when 80% of climate
emissions must be eliminated. The
impact of such reactors is minimal on climate
change that is needed now. There
is also cost. And the cost of WWS devices,
that can cut emissions rapidly, continues
to fall. Failing to use them now is an
opportunity cost. The hoped-for nuclear
fusion technology could provide energy with
fewer problems than today’s fission
reactors but it is highly unlikely to be
available before the mid 2030s. Nuclear
options bring risks that are discussed.
In sum, there are delays between planning and
operation and while the reactor
is down for refurbishing, when more pollutants
accumulate from the background electric
grid. Different risks of widescale nuclear use
include weapons proliferation, reactor
meltdown, radioactive waste risk, lung cancer
risks from mining, and land despoilment
risks. Examples of real reactor building
delays run 14-19 years. The lifetime before
refurbishing runs around 40 years. And there
are real emissions conveniently
ignored. 6. Why not
biomass for electricity and heat? Biomass
combustion
without or with carbon capture is discussed.
The primary reason for not using
it is that it pollutes and displaces WWS
electricity and heating which does
not. Carbon capture uses more energy – more
burning and more CO2, or uses WWS
electricity that could be used directly
instead of the biomass. 7. Why not
liquid biofuels for transportation?
In 2017 in the US 30% of CO2 equivalents
came from vehicle exhaust and
10% came upstream from production of vehicle
fuel. Eliminating vehicle emissions
removes some 40% of CO2 equivalents.
Battery-electric vehicles powered by wind
removes over 99% of those CO2 equivalents.
Using hydrogen produced from wind generated
electricity for vehicles can remove slightly
less of the CO2 equivalents. Using
ethanol biofuel does not significantly reduce
CO2 emissions because ethanol
production uses fossil fuel energy to grow,
fertilize, water, cultivate, refine
the product into fuel, and transport it to
market. Moreover, the land needed to
grow any significant amount of fuel is too
great. 8. Why not
gray, blue or brown hydrogen? The
author discusses other ways of synthesizing
hydrogen than by using WWS electricity. 9. Why not
synthetic direct air carbon
capture? Air capture allows air pollution to
continue, removes little carbon
dioxide and requires an additional equipment
cost. Spending on it rather than
on WWS electricity increases social cost –
equipment plus health care plus CO2
emissions. Air capture mostly increases air
pollution and mining. 10. Why not
geoengineering? The
techniques
proposed to inject things into the air to
reduce temperature do not reduce the CO2
levels that cause the heating. Production of
these cooling gases continues to add
more heat-causing CO2 so that global
temperatures continue to rise in the long
term. And geoengineering does nothing to lower
the health effects of the other
pollutants in the air from fossil fuel use. Nine:
Electricity Grids. Clean
electricity and the grid are central to
the WWS solution. It requires interconnecting
geographically dispersed WWS
generators on the grid. Understanding
electricity and the grid is important and
the physics and electrical engineering are
thoroughly discussed in this chapter:
types of electricity; lightning; wired
electricity; voltage; power; electromagnetism
and alternating current (AC) electricity;
3-phase electricity; capacitors and
inductors; transformers, both step-up and
step-down, and their role in transmission
lines; how the dominant use of AC electricity
arrived for the grid with the use
of high voltage DC transmission for covering
distances over 600 kilometers. The
chapter ends with details of voltages
typically used for generation and
transmission,
transmission and distribution losses, and
mention of the fact that offshore
renewable WSS sources often require short
distances to distribution centres
because most people in the world live near
coasts. Ten:
Photovoltaics and
Solar Radiation. The chapter
gives the physics then the history
of the PV cell. The silicon cell dates to the
mid 20th century. The distinction
between photoelectric effect and photovoltaic
effect is given, and an
explanation is given of why the Photovoltaic
cell cannot convert all the
radiation striking it to electricity. The
maximum efficiency of conversion of
total energy for a single junction silicon
solar cell was close to 25% in 2021 which
is about 80% of the theoretical maximum limit.
The development of second
generation or thin film cells and of other
types of cells is given. A section
introduces PV panels and arrays. A
panel consists of 32, 36, 48 …128 cells
pre-wired in series in a rectangular
package. An array is a group of panels wired
in parallel or series to optimise
voltage or power. The light reaching a panel
can come directly from the sun but
can come as diffuse scattered light from
clouds, buildings etc. There is a
section on solar resources – how many
panels can reasonably be set up – on flat land
or floating on tranquil waters. The
world’s electricity needs if everything were
electric in 2050 the annual demand
could be 9 terawatts. The
world’s likely
developable solar PV resource over land is
about 1,300 terawatts. This is about
144 times the world’s all-purpose end use
demand in 2050. The smaller sunlight
falling at high northern and southern
latitudes does not limit the installation
of PV solar there if the panel tracks the sun
or is tilted. There is a
section on tilting and tracking
panels and vertically or horizontally and
where in the northern or southern
hemisphere. There are arguments preferring
tilted or tracking panels with some
rules of thumb for optimizing. The optimal
angle of tilt is the latitude – so at
45 degrees north, the angle is 45 degrees. The
default advice for utility-scale
PV is for one axis horizontal tracking except
for the highest latitudes. For
rooftop PV optimal tilting should be used. Eleven. Onshore
and
Offshore Wind Energy. After solar,
wind has the potential to supply
the greatest portion of all-purpose energy. It
is the least expensive form of
new electricity to replace fossil fuel plants
and supply new energy demand in
many countries. The chapter gives a history of
different types and components
of wind turbines, how they work, wind farm
footprints, and spacing needs to
power the world, worldwide wind resources and
impacts of wind farms on wind speeds,
temperatures, hurricanes, bats and birds. Horizontal
axis wind turbines are the most
common. Those providing grid electricity are
three blade turbines mounted on
tall towers with hub height (the level of the
axis) 80 – 150 meters and facing
the wind (upwind). These require some
mechanism to keep them facing the wind –
unlike downwind turbines. In the downwind
model the tower itself blocks the
wind from the blades and so produces shear or
wear and tear on the blades and less
power. The 3-blade model is slower, with lower
shear and quieter than more
complex double-bladed models. The turbines can
be geared or direct. There are controls
on the pitch of the blades as well a governor
to control speeds. They typically
use AC asynchronous generators. Betz’s law
limits the maximum power extraction
from the wind at close to 60% and modern
turbines extract around 46% of the wind
energy. Below wind speeds from 2 to 3.5 meters
per second, power is uneconomical
and not generated. After that, power increases
as the cube of the wind speed up
to passive stall control up to cut-out wind
speed at which pitch control or
active stall bring power output to zero. When
not needed wind power can be stored
in the ways noted including producing clean
hydrogen. Most turbines can survive
destructive wind speeds of 50 meters pers
second for 10 minutes when shut off.
For onshore turbines, down time was 1.6% or 6
days per year. Offshore, total downtime
for repairs was 2.2-3.8% or 8 to 14 days per
year. Footprint and
spacing for wind farms is
discussed. The estimated available land for
wind power could provide 72 terawatts
whereas 4 terawatts would provide 45% of the
electricity for a fully WWS
electrified world in 2050! There is a
discussion of wind turbines, climate,
hurricanes, and deaths of birds and bats. The
book argues turbines cool the globe
and that lots of offshore wind turbines can
help dissipate a hurricane.
Turbines kill birds, but fewer than fossil
fuel generators, buildings and cats.
Surprisingly, in the US cats are the number
one threat to birds. The number two
threat is windows of buildings. The book
argues coal and natural gas electric
power plants kill more birds per unit energy
and in total than do wind turbines.
Nuclear power plants kill about the same
number per unit. Modern turbines are
less harmful than before. Also, migratory
paths are now known and migration is
monitored so that locating turbines on major
routine migration routes can be
avoided and operators can slow or stop
turbines during migration. Twelve: Steps in
Developing
100% WWS. This chapter
looks at how WWS technologies
might be pulled together for countries,
states, cities and towns to get to
endpoints for a transition, and targets for
meeting all purpose power demands,
by 2050 if not before. The next, chapter 13,
shows how to meet demand
continuously by supply, storage and demand
response. Roadmaps and
grid stability analysis are
helpful in giving policy makers, utilities and
the public confidence that any
transition need not cause grid failures even
during extreme weather conditions.
The chapter
gives a systematic way to assess average
energy and end-use energy, and to project
energy needs by sectors: residential,
commercial, industry, transportation,
agriculture/forestry/fishing and
military. To do this there is a listing of
changes in energy needed when the
source becomes electricity, and a discussion
of these changes. Then a
resource analysis is made for each of
the WWS supplies of energy--things like sun
roof tops, windspeeds and land
availability. Next comes a selection of the
blend of WWS technologies to meet
demand. Finally, there is an explanation of
how to do costing of avoided
energy, pollution and climate costs. Thirteen:
Keeping the
Grid Stable with 100% WWS. Can a 100%
WWS grid avoid blackouts? This chapter
shows how. This is more important when
electricity provides close to 100% of
end-use energy rather than its present 20%.
The balance will be geothermal and
solar heat. At the same time, all sectors will
require less energy when
electrified because the technologies are much
more energy-efficient than fossil
fuel counterparts. Demand for energy will
decrease because energy will not be
used to mine, transport or process fossil
fuels and the future grid will be for
long distance electricity transmission rather
than pipelines. The challenge will
be to match demand with 100% WWS electricity
and heat supply plus storage both with
very short and long demand response timescale. A sudden
change in demand on account of things
like weather cannot be met by a variable WWS
resource unless storage, demand
response or long-distance transmission, or all
three, are added to electricity
generation. However, this is also true for
tide, geothermal, coal, nuclear that
provide relatively constant baseload supplies
of electricity that rarely match
demand. And baseload generators are down 3% -
40% of the year for maintenance. So,
gap-filling resources like hydropower, pumped
hydropower, natural gas and now
batteries are used to fill the gaps currently.
Blackouts have occurred in
current systems. Interestingly, they were
mostly not caused by insufficient WWS
supplies. Several
countries come close to 100% renewable
electricity now, and there is a chart of
these. Many use hydropower which has the
least risk of blackout because hydropower can
be used both as baseline supply and
peaking power. Scotland generates around 70%
by wind. In 2020 renewables became
the second largest source of electricity after
natural gas in the US. Coal,
natural gas and nuclear current electricity
systems have been more at risk from
severe climate events than WWS because of
their need for cooling water during a
heatwave. A portion of
future electricity will be converted
to heat, either by heat pumps heating
buildings, or heat in industrial processes.
Thirteen steps for creating an infrastructure
for providing energy by WWS are
presented and discussed. For example a
transition to transportation by
batteries plus hydrogen fuel cells. Or the
transition of heat and cooling for buildings
to heat pump, or direct solar, or geothermal
or district-supplied by these
sources. This is followed by fourteen steps to
meeting demand with supply. Storage
and demand response are set out and discussed
– such as determining end use energy
demand in each energy sector and sizing WWS
electricity and heat generators to
meet the annual average. After
detailed discussion of how to manage,
there is a section providing studies of
meeting demand in 100% WWS when all
countries have not only a 100% WWS electricity
system as some have now, but a
full WWS energy system. The chapter ends with
a discussion on job creation and
job loss in the transition. Fourteen:
Timeline and
Policies to Transition The solution
to global warming, air pollution
and energy security needs popular support,
political will and a rapid rollout
of the solution. People should be confident a
solution is possible, willing to
make changes in their own lives to help, and
ready to support policy makers who
pass laws to speed up a transition. The
chapter discusses the necessary
timeline, its obstacles, and things people can
do to help. For example, by 2022 new power
plants should be WWS – no more coal, natural
gas or nuclear; heating, drying and cooking
powered by electricity or direct
heat or district heating. By 2023 all new
industrial process technologies should be all
electric; non-road vehicles should
be electric and light on-road vehicles should
be battery. There are things everyone
can do, including home owners, renters, policy
makers by sector, poor
countries, countries in conflict. Fifteen: My
Journey Chapter 15 is
a good account of a life
becoming a work life – working on solutions
with US state politics and a university
campus, in California and in New York. There
are also links to international politics
and the UN concerns on climate change. It
makes a good story to read! At the end,
not surprisingly, the author finds
the underlying challenge political. Most
polluting technologies and resources receive
government subsidies or tax breaks or are not
required to eliminate their
emissions. Thus, they can run inexpensively
for a long time in competition with
WWS, which doesn’t benefit from these
government perks. Thus, wise policies and
bold policy makers are called for to
accelerate the transition to WWS and the end
of climate warming, air polluting and a lot of
unnecessary costs.