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A Scary Year's End World
                        Dec 2023


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My 2023 began well after the year 2022 had been very bad for me. My younger brother in England died at Easter 2022. Covid restrictions remained but I was able to travel to the funeral and back - masked. I got a nasty hernia in June that was able to be checked on ultra sound in mid-July. But it wasn’t until early November 2022 that even the private Shouldice Hernia Hospital could operate on me. After six painful weeks of recovery from the hernia operation were ending an eye retina condition was diagnosed. Mercifully, I had a first treatment for that within days.  Despite all this, in my personal life 2022 ended well with a wonderful gift of a week of holiday at a resort in the Dominican Republic with my daughter’s family just before Christmas.

 

The year 2023 began very pleasantly. All of January 2023 was spent in the sunny warmth of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. It a wonderful gift to be able to go for walks in the open with warmth and sun and without snow and ice to get in the way. In March 2023 a week of birding in Colombia that had been cancelled by that hernia in 2022 finally took place. By then the worrisome Covid pandemic was moving from centre stage. But the 2022 war in Ukraine was into its second year, and awareness of other wars returned in 2023 which then brought new fears to the US, Canada, Ontario and Toronto.

 

The war in Ukraine is scary. Russia is big, has a big army, has nuclear weapons and challenges the dominant group of democratic western nations. The breakdown of the agreement of the West with Russia and the former Eastern Europe began in 2014 when Russia occupied parts of Ukraine. The invasion in early 2022 aimed to bring Ukraine into the orbit of Russian influence/control. By rapid sanctions against Russia and arms supplies and military training to Ukraine, that early 2022 invasion was stalled. But by the end of 2023 Ukraine’s pushback was also stalled. Concerns were returning to Europe. The US Republicans were holding up further funding to Ukraine. Russia appeared confident and Putin announced he was running for another term as President in March 2024.

 

During 2023, as Covid further slipped from sight, other wars occasionally surfaced. In Mali, Russian backed militia sided with an army coop to remove western influence. France and Canada had previously played roles there against Islamic extremists. It became clear that serious wars in Sudan and Ethiopia were continuing in the Horn of Africa. The war that began in 2012 in Syria that has involved ISIS, Turkey, and Russia continues albeit less visibly and at a lower level. The War in Yemen that involves Houthi rebels supported by Iran, against a one-time elected government backed by Saudi Arabia continues. But in October a serious new war erupted between Hamas and Israel in Gaza in early October. This war produced gut wrenching images of urban landscapes of devastated and demolished housing and hospitals and wounded, dead and homeless Palestinians. Thousands of Palestinians have died with no end in sight as 2023 ended. Initially this war was justified as Israel’s right to defend itself after a Hamas attack. However, this war has put a floodlight on the impact on civilians. It is the worst wartime assault on civilians that the UN has seen. For me it makes clear that if war cannot be undertaken without the killing of large numbers of civilians and civilian infrastructure, war cannot be justified. Other ways must be found. The Israeli use of war here appears to be a mistake dragging the US with it despite awareness of the impact on Palestinian civilians.

 

As 2023 rolled on, events in the US itself have become ever more worrisome. The US heads to a November 2024 election with the most popular Republican, former President Trump, leading President Biden in the polls. Not only has Trump been implicated in the insurrection of January 2020, but he had conviction and in serious law suits against him with trials still playing out. In few countries could a person with such a criminal history run for election at any level of government. The year-end Atlantic magazine had an array of articles featuring the areas of disaster that a re-elected Trump portends. The Republican party has already shown itself capable of falling in behind such a person. Moreover, that party is now able to extract concessions from President Biden in order to approve any financial measures tied to US involvement in the conflicts under way. 

 

On a very different front, at the beginning of June 2023, a record-breaking season of wildfires in Canada was beginning. For the first time we smelled fear of fires. The skies had a disquieting foggy and yellowish look at the family cottage as well as the smell in the air. My wife and I rushed out and managed to buy a plug-in air purifier for the small cottage. The smoke from the huge fire in Quebec spread to New York city. Those fires went on until the end of September. Other huge fires begin near Fort Nelson. They died down in August and resumed in October!  But there were yet other major fires. On average 2.5 million hectares of forest burn in Canada each year. In 2023, 18.4 million hectares burned. That is over 7 times the average and they covered a huge area. As well as Canadian fires, July and August was a summer of extreme heat and fires in several parts of Europe. All of this brought the reality of global warming and climate change to many people and brought the significance of continuing to use of fossil fuels home.

 

Meanwhile, in Spring 2023 Charles III was crowned king in the UK with medieval pageantry and old and new church music that many listeners in Toronto found interesting. Post pandemic issues of housing and affordability of housing and food came to media attention. There are heath care problems with frozen payments for nurses in Ontario, and staff shortages for hospitals and scarcity of family doctors nationwide. The Bank of Canada announced successive rises in interest rates to respond to the inflation caused by price increases. The national crisis in the use of toxic drugs kept emerging in media towards year’s end with reports of families losing their young adults to overdoses. A range of aboriginal peoples’ issues kept rising to the newsrooms - from drinking water to missing girls and women. Homelessness became a big issue in Toronto as winter approached and that plus shortage of housing began to provoke questions about the number of immigrants and foreign students and workers allowed to enter the country.

 

On the national political level, Prime Minister Trudeau announced an amicable family separation that media treated with some respect. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre visibly changed his image and style and ran a successful ad campaign cross country accusing Trudeau of the housing shortages, homelessness and all other economic woes. Conservatives passed the Liberals in the polls, but remained mainly silent on any response to the climate change issue and related use of oil and gas. The Globe & Mail noted in one of its year-end editorials that he has yet to reveal indications of being a responsible leader.

 

An election at the end of May in Alberta re-elected the United Conservatives led by Danielle Smith with a reduced majority. She has since suspended the growth of the renewable energy sector developments on the grounds of a need to have measures for the eventual take down and replacement of wind turbines and solar panels – presumably much as there should be some way for the closure of unused oil wells and cleaning up tar sand extraction wastes. She has taken greater political control of healthcare, a previous administrator who had led vaccination mandates in Alberta was sidelined from a job, and there was shading back of information previously used on the effectiveness of flus and Covid vaccines that has been linked to fewer Albertans getting vaccinated. There have been soundings on taking Alberta out of the Canada Pension Plan. Many seem to be ideas imported directly from Republican US states.

 

In Ontario in mid 2023 reports emerged of the designation of use of Green Belt lands for housing in a way that appeared to have given certain owners of lands preference. Happily, this ended with a reversal of the use of green belt lands. However, the development of a new motorway connection that will chew up more farmland while offering very little benefit to most Ontario drivers is going ahead. On the energy front Ontario moved ahead with plans to meet projected greater electricity needs with new nuclear reactors and new plants burning natural gas. For the most part that means burning fracked gas for Western Canada and the US.)  The cost-effective alternative of wind, water and solar with storage that I have helped to promote has been ignored. In opposition, the Conservatives had encouraged rural public resistance of wind power when the Liberals ran Ontario. However, the need to move from fossil fuels is becoming stronger and the economic benefit of wind water solar with storage clearer.  As year-end approached and opposition from smaller towns to new plants to burn fracked gas for electricity grew,  indications emerged that the Ontario government may now be open to at least some forms of wind power that the previous Liberals had not pursued – offshore in lake Ontario.

 

In early December the UN climate conference COP28 ended up in Dubai with an inadequate outcome but some small pluses. For the first time, the final agreement includes text on “transitioning away” from fossil fuels. Recognizing this is positive, but it is not a rapid fossil fuel phase-out that the forest fire smoke and the scientists call for. Although all countries are called to triple their use of renewable energy, the language allows ways out and provide no agreed way to finance the change. There is now a Loss & Damage Fund to help countries most harmed by climate change but the first contributions, $700 million US is much less than the trillions needed to build back from unavoidable harm now faced.

 

On another small positive note, in the city of Toronto, Mayor John Tory resigned over an affair with a staffer. In the election, Olivia Chow, a previous runner up and New Democrat was elected. By year end she has visibly faced the need to respond to homelessness people and called out the federal responsibility for refugees amongst the homeless. She has also followed her concern to get the finances of the city sorted out in serious sets of discussions with Federal and Provincial governments. Some deal was reached for Ontario to pick up the responsibility and tab for the major arterial roads into and out of Toronto like the Gardiner Expressway in return for her silence on some controversial moves of the Ford government like the redevelopment of Ontario Place that includes a private spa resort. There are fears that the economic plight of the city has led her to over compromise with Premier Ford. However, it may be desirable that she is open to any and all means to make Toronto financially sustainable. My pension nervously awaits the city property tax share for 2024.

 

In sum, as 2023 ends I worry about Trump retuning to some form of autocratic rule in the US, worry about the fate of Ukraine and the ability of any state like Russia to just take over other countries for their convenience and interest. I fear some terrible end from the destruction and carnage in Gaza. I fear non-ending wars and endless refugees. I have concerns about the demise of a healthcare system for all that is based on need. I have concern for the shortage of housing and its costs which can only make homelessness rise. I worry about living in a city that is broke with Mayor Chow forced to compromise with the Provincial government in inappropriate ways to keep it afloat.  But I can still look forward to the ten-day trip to warm places to bird in January and the six-week trip to Mexico to relearn some Spanish in February and early March. A worrisome life right now appears preferable to some alternatives.

 

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