An early fall federal election     September 2008 Click square for index   All through spring 2008 hung the question of whether there would be a Canadian federal election or not, yet the polls did not predict a Tory win. Harper had waited a respectable time since the last election. At the same time, the fixed date the Harper government had enacted with some fanfare for a Canadian election was still a year away. Harper's minority government had been trying to act more like a majority and evidently felt constrained by minority status. The Tory coffers were supposedly full and the Liberal coffers supposedly depleated. New factors increased the pressure for an election. By summer there were signals all was not well in the US economy with dramatic housing price declines, failing banks and falling stock values. Despite comments to the contrary, for a country like Canada, heavily dependent on sales to the US, that foretold economic troubles which could make an election difficult. And any election in Canada needed to fit in before the US presidential election campaign running up to November 4th 2009 dominated media attention in the fall. During that US campaign it was likely that Barak Obama, recently nominated by the Democrats, would win the presidency with his stirring movement for change. A big swing for change - away from the right- would not favour a conservative government in Canada.  As we passed September 1st, newspapers were preparing Canadians for the possible election. The Globe's Jeffrey Simpson lamented the inability of Canada's leaders to inspire us with their words - capturing some of our feelings about Mr Obama's oratory compared to Mr Harper's and Mr Dion's. As predicted, an election was called within days of Labour Day - a day which heralds that Canadians are back for work from the holiday period of July and August. Within a day or two of the 7 September announcement, a young conservative candidate was at my door telling me how scary taxes were and how very scary the Liberal new carbon tax proposal was. A fellow member of an organization sent me a "pass it on" email along similar lines. Although environment had been a dominant issue for Canadians, the aim was to dismiss with fog and mirrors the Liberal policy decision to reach for the environmental high ground with a carbon tax proposal. Environment was moving from its dominant issue status. Another major issue was about to dominate the public conciousness. Early signals were that the Tory attack was working. "Tories seize lead in key ridings, poll shows" said Laghi, Brianthe in the Globe on 8th September. It looked as if a majority government could be in the cards for Harper. Yet this tightly planned campaign turned against Harper. It did so mainly because he could not adapt convincingly to the new issue - the unfolding financial disaster in the US and Europe. By 22nd September Kevin Carmichael in the Globe was using language like "U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's $700-billion (U.S.) bailout of Wall Street could stop the bleeding, but their nation's economy remains seriously wounded and is at least a year away from a healthy recovery... Now Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke have to contend with an economy that most economists say is contracting for the first time since 1991." That Harper was unable to respond credibly to the unfolding global economic difficulties is surprising. Surely some awareness of impending financial problems was one of the reasons for pushing for an early election in the first place? In addition there were other little problems which grew while Harper had no new ammunition himself. Harper's cuts to grants to the arts community were foolish and hard to defend while pretending the Candadian economy was just fine. The cuts appeared to be aimed at pleasing the former Reform Party voters, but for most of us they appeared simply poorly timed and punitive. Harper underestimated the art's community's ability to play on that in the campaign. Then the Liberals were able to briefly bring up a couple of issues which, although quickly glossed over by the media, left an uncomfortable impression. The Liberals were able to use Harper's comment on a Globe report that a criminal investigation was continuing to suggest he was trying to control information concerning the Bernier affair - the business of Harper's foreign minister who left government files lying around at his girl friend's place. Then the Liberals were able to show an instance where Harper used verbatim as his own before our parliament, a speech about the importance of armed forces in Afghanistan originally given by the then conservative Australian Prime Minister to his parliament. (Good conservative speeches must be in short supply.) Of all these, the biggest turn from early good fortune was Harper's inability to deal credibly with the unfolding economic disaster. As US then European leaders took extraordinary measures to deal with collapsing banks and signs of a failing global economy, Harper simply said that Canada's banks were different and our economy was strong. That wasn't credible for a country which trades heavily with the US - nor was it true as it turned out. The Liberals moved in to work on that front. So did the NDP. The leaders debates on TV, especially the one in French, cost Harper. The economy featured prominantly. The Bloc's Giles Duceppe could easily convince Qubequers that Harper was not in their best interest. The NDP's leader Jack Layton pushed hard on the economy too. He was treated to a scathing dismissive article by the Globe's Jeffrey Simpson on 27th September - an article which to my mind relied too much on personal predjudices and not enough on insightful thinking. Towards the very end, the Globe's Murray Campbell noted on October 7th "Harper's silence on Ontario is hurting Tories' chances" and "The Conservatives' popularity in Ontario is sinking like a stone, perhaps about as fast as the provincial economy, and yet Stephen Harper is unrelentingly remote from the province that could make or break his majority." In the final days, the Toronto Star's editors wrote an insightful piece which ended with endorsing Stefan Dion despite his rather lack lustre performance. As election day ended, Harper did not get the majority which he had sought but a minority - consistent with his performance. Then our attention moved to the US presidential election which is another story. TOP   Click:

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